New England Landmark Realty covers the Vermont real estate market 

from the inside — market data, buyer strategy, seller timing, land 

use regulation, and the policy decisions shaping what homes cost and 

who can afford them.

 

Tony Walton has been working Vermont real estate since 1978. 

The analysis here reflects that depth.

 

Browse by topic below, or use the search to find what you need.

July 18, 2026

The Vermont Builder's Playbook: An Insider's Guide to Saving Money on Your New Home

The Numbers Guy's Full Article (Unedited)

Quick Answer

How can you save money building a house in Vermont?

  1. Buy a lot with septic design, water access, and survey work already completed.
  2. Test for soil conditions and ledge before closing.
  3. Compare builders using line-item inclusions, labor rates, and markup.
  4. Negotiate fixed-price terms where possible and plan an efficient groundbreaking date.
  5. Lock finish decisions early and reduce square footage before reducing construction quality.

Building new in Vermont is expensive by nature — short seasons, strict energy codes, and a state full of ledge and rolling terrain don't lend themselves to cheap construction. But "expensive" and "unnecessarily expensive" are two different things, and most of the gap between them comes down to decisions made before a shovel ever hits the ground. Here's what the process actually rewards, if you know where to look.

1. Buy Land That's Already Done the Hard Part

The single biggest lever most buyers overlook is the land itself. A lot with an approved septic design, confirmed water access (municipal or a proven well), and a completed survey has already absorbed months of engineering, testing, and permitting risk — work that costs real money and real time on a raw, unapproved parcel. Two lots priced $50,000 apart can actually favor the more expensive one once you account for the $15,000–$30,000 and several months typically spent getting an unapproved parcel through septic design and permitting. Always ask what's already been done to a lot, not just what it costs.

Key Takeaways ▼ Open

Two-Sentence Summary

Vermont land buyers and future homeowners can use this playbook to identify cost exposure before choosing a lot, builder, contract, or finish package. The strongest savings come from reducing uncertainty before excavation and preventing avoidable changes after construction begins.

The Numbers Guy Summary

The lowest-priced lot or builder proposal is not automatically the least expensive path to a finished Vermont home. Septic approval, ledge, excluded bid items, contract structure, and late finish decisions can each move the final number. Smaller square footage often protects quality and long-term value better than cutting construction standards. The budget is usually won or lost before the first shovel reaches the ground.

Quick Facts

  • An unapproved parcel may require $15,000–$30,000 in septic design and permitting work.
  • Builder markup on subcontractor work commonly falls in the 15–20% range.
  • A project described as a $500,000 build can move beyond $550,000 through accumulated change orders.

Data from sources listed below.

2. Get a Soil and Ledge Assessment Before You Fall in Love With a Lot

Ledge is the single most common budget-buster in Vermont construction, and it's almost always a surprise because most buyers don't test for it until the excavator is already scheduled. A modest investment in a soil boring or test pit before closing can save five or six figures in blasting and rock-hammering costs down the line — or at minimum, let you negotiate the price down or walk away with clear eyes.

3. Understand What "Per Square Foot" Actually Includes

This is where a lot of budgets quietly go sideways. One builder's $275/sf number includes cabinetry, a generator, decks, and finish allowances. Another builder's $275/sf covers framing and drywall only, with everything else billed separately. Before comparing bids, get a line-item breakdown from each builder of exactly what's inside their number — site work, design fees, appliances, and landscaping are the categories most often left out, and most often forgotten until the invoices start arriving.

4. Push for a Fixed-Price Contract, Not Time-and-Materials

Most Vermont builders work on a time-and-materials (T&M) basis by default, with a builder markup on top of subcontractor invoices and materials. That structure puts nearly all the cost-overrun risk on you. A fixed-price contract shifts that risk to the builder — they'll price in a bit of cushion for it, but it protects you from mid-project material price swings and gives you a number you can actually plan around. If a builder won't do fixed-price at all, that's worth asking why.

5. Time Your Groundbreaking Around Vermont's Building Season

Vermont's construction window is short, and a project that breaks ground in early spring moves very differently than one that starts in October and immediately runs into frost, snow, and reduced crew availability. Winter work isn't just slower — it often costs more directly, through heated enclosures and weather delays. If you have any flexibility on timeline, aim to have permitting wrapped up early enough to break ground by late spring.

6. Choose Municipal Water Over a Private Well When You Can

Where it's available, a municipal water connection is typically more predictable than drilling a private well — mainly tap fees and trenching, versus a well where depth, yield, and rock conditions aren't fully known until the rig is already on-site. It's not always an option depending on the lot, but if you're choosing between two otherwise similar parcels, municipal access is usually the lower-risk (and often lower-cost) path.

7. Lock Your Finish Decisions Before Construction Starts

Change orders are the quietest, most reliable way a project goes over budget — a bigger window here, upgraded flooring there, an extra outlet run somewhere else. None of them look expensive in the moment. All of them add up. Making your finish decisions — flooring, fixtures, cabinetry, paint colors — before the framing is up, rather than deciding as you go, is one of the easiest ways to keep a "$500,000 build" from quietly becoming $550,000+.

8. Ask About In-House Labor Rates and Markup, Not Just the Bottom Line

Most Vermont builders bill subcontractor work with a markup (commonly 15–20%) and bill their own in-house labor at a separate hourly rate. Two builders can have very similar sounding proposals with meaningfully different economics underneath. Asking directly what the markup is, and what's marked up, gives you a much clearer read on where your money is actually going — and some room to negotiate.

9. Consider a Modest Size Over a Modest Finish Level

If a budget needs to come down, cutting square footage usually preserves value better than cutting finish quality. A smaller, well-built home tends to hold resale value better than a larger home with builder-grade finishes throughout — and it's also simply cheaper to heat, maintain, and furnish for years afterward.

10. Get Real Quotes From Local Builders, Not National Calculators

Online cost calculators are a reasonable starting point for a ballpark, but they don't know your specific town's permitting quirks, your site's soil conditions, or which local subcontractors are actually available and reasonably priced right now. A conversation with two or three Vermont-based builders who know your specific area will get you a far more useful number than any generic per-square-foot tool — and it's free.

The Bottom Line

Nothing here makes Vermont construction cheap — the state's terrain, climate, and code requirements make sure of that. But the difference between a build that comes in close to budget and one that blows past it almost always traces back to decisions made in the first few weeks: the lot you choose, the contract structure you sign, and how early you lock in your finishes. Get those right, and you're building smart, not just building.

Have a specific lot or builder quote you'd like a second set of eyes on? That's exactly the kind of conversation worth having before you sign anything.

How Can New England Landmark Realty Help With a Vermont New Build?

New England Landmark Realty can help Vermont buyers compare lots and builder proposals before a $15,000–$30,000 approval gap or a major site-condition surprise reaches the construction budget.

A parcel review can focus the conversation on septic status, water access, surveys, zoning, site conditions, comparable finished homes, and the assumptions behind each builder quote.

The cheapest build is often the one with fewer unknowns.

Office: 802-253-4711
Toll-Free: 866-324-2427
Cell: 802-233-4107
Website: nelandmark.com

Sources

July 15, 2026

Central Vermont Land: Where the Market Is Moving, and Where It's Standing Still

The Numbers Guy's Full Article (Unedited)

Quick Answer

Where is land selling fastest in Central Vermont in 2026?

Warren leads the region with 12 land closings year-to-date, an average of 29.5 days on market, and a median sale price at 100% of list.

If you're buying or selling land anywhere from the Mad River Valley to Stowe to the Northeast side of Montpelier this year, here's the honest picture the data is telling us: this is not one market. It's several markets stacked on top of each other, and knowing which one your parcel sits in matters more than any single comp.

We pulled every land transaction across Chittenden, Lamoille, and Washington counties year-to-date through mid-July 2026 — 366 listings in all — and layered in single-family home data for context. Here's what buyers and sellers on both sides of a land deal need to understand right now.

The Big Picture: A Market That's Working, Unevenly

Ninety land parcels have closed across the three counties this year. The median sale landed at 94.6% of list price, with a median 65 days on market. That's a healthy, functioning market by most measures — not a fire sale, not a bidding frenzy, just steady transaction activity.

But absorption pace tells a different story depending on where you're standing:

  • Washington County: roughly 14.4 months of land inventory at the current sales pace
  • Lamoille County: roughly 16.1 months
  • Chittenden County: roughly 26.9 months

Chittenden's number stands out, and it's not because Chittenden land is unwanted — it's that a lot of the active inventory there is small, expensive infill parcels that appeal to a narrower buyer pool and simply take longer to place.

Key Takeaways ▼ Open

Two-Sentence Summary

Central Vermont land buyers and sellers need to judge each parcel by its town, zoning, buildability, and competition from resale homes. The three-county data helps buyers identify leverage and helps sellers price against the economics of building, not just nearby land comps.

The Numbers Guy Summary

Land is moving fastest where demand, buildability, and pricing align. Warren combines 12 closings, 29.5 average days on market, and a median sale price at 100% of list. Waterbury shows the opposite pattern: homes are moving quickly while nine land listings have produced no closings. The decisive variables are zoning clarity, build-vs-buy economics, financing, and the size of the buyer pool.

Quick Facts

  • Ninety land parcels closed across Chittenden, Lamoille, and Washington counties through mid-July 2026.
  • The median sale reached 94.6% of list price after a median 65 days on market.
  • Estimated inventory ranged from 14.4 months in Washington County to 26.9 months in Chittenden County.

Data from sources listed below.

Where the Market Is Moving: Warren Leads the Pack

If you want to see what a genuinely strong land market looks like right now, look at Warren. Twelve closings year-to-date — the most of any town in the region — with an average of just 29.5 days on market and a median sale price at 100% of list. That's volume, speed, and pricing integrity all showing up together, and it almost certainly reflects sustained demand tied to the Mad River Valley/Sugarbush recreational corridor.

Morristown and Stowe are also worth watching. Morristown led Lamoille County in volume with nine closings. Stowe closed seven parcels at a much higher price point (averaging around $704,000) and a longer 119-day marketing period — but still near 91% of list. That's not weakness, that's simply what a slower-moving luxury/resort land segment looks like when it's healthy.

Where the Market Is Stalled — and Why

Now for the towns where land simply isn't moving. These aren't struggling for the same reason, so it's worth separating them into three distinct patterns:

Remote, unimproved land with a thin buyer pool — Waterville, Middlesex, Marshfield. Cheap on a per-acre basis, but often listed with vague or blank zoning information. That ambiguity around access, permitting, and utilities scares off all but the most speculative buyers, and land loans are hard enough to get without adding uncertainty on top.

High-end infill competing for a narrow buyer — Charlotte, South Burlington. These parcels carry premium per-acre pricing in expensive, close-in towns. The buyer here is specific: someone who wants to custom-build, has capital for land and construction, and is willing to wait out a build timeline. That's always going to be a smaller, more patient pool — slow absorption here isn't a red flag, it's just a narrow lane.

Village/urban lots losing out to resale homes — Barre City, Jericho. When construction costs are elevated, the math frequently favors buying an existing house over building on a small in-town lot, even when the land itself is reasonably priced.

The Waterbury Case Study: A Strong Town, a Stuck Segment

Waterbury is the clearest illustration of why "the market" isn't a single thing — because Waterbury's home market and its land market are living in two completely different realities.

Single-family homes in Waterbury are on fire. Fourteen closings year-to-date, a median of just 24.5 days on market, and a median sale price at 96.4% of list — spanning everything from a $257,500 close to a $2.25 million close. Several sold at or above asking price in single-digit days on market. This is a deep, confident buyer pool.

Waterbury land, meanwhile, has recorded zero closings all year, against nine active listings with days-on-market ranging from a few weeks up to well over a year.

Why the disconnect in the same town? Three things:

  1. Much of the active land inventory isn't really residential. Several of Waterbury's stuck listings carry Village Commercial, Town Neighborhood Commercial, or highway-corridor zoning — a fundamentally different, thinner buyer pool than the one snapping up houses.
  2. The build-vs-buy math doesn't favor land right now. The median list price on Waterbury's genuinely buildable 1+ acre lots is around $450,000. Add current Vermont construction costs, and a from-scratch build often lands well above what a comparable finished home just sold for — in 24 days.
  3. Even well-zoned, genuinely buildable land is aging. It's not only the commercial-flavored parcels sitting stale — a 29-acre residentially-zoned lot has been on the market over 400 days. When houses are moving this fast, most buyers take the path of least resistance.

The takeaway for anyone with land in a market like Waterbury: it isn't that buyers don't want to be there. It's that raw land is currently losing the value argument against a hot resale market, townwide.

What Would Have to Change — and How Likely Is It?

A few conditions would need to line up to unstick markets like Waterbury's:

  • Construction costs easing relative to home prices, closing the build-vs-buy gap
  • Resale inventory tightening enough to force buyers toward building out of necessity
  • Land-specific financing loosening — more construction-to-permanent products, more bank appetite for raw land lending
  • Zoning clarity on ambiguous or mixed-use parcels, expanding the effective residential buyer pool
  • Mortgage rates easing meaningfully, narrowing the monthly-payment gap between buying and building

As of mid-July 2026, 30-year mortgage rates are sitting in the mid-6% range, and forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association both point to rates holding in that same band through the rest of the year and into 2027. Meaningful rate relief isn't on the near-term horizon, and construction costs tend to be sticky downward. Realistically, this is a medium-term structural condition, not something likely to flip in the next few months. The one lever sellers and agents can actually pull sooner is zoning and subdivision clarity — everything else depends on macro forces outside anyone's control.

What This Means If You're Buying

  • You have real leverage on land right now, especially in towns with long DOM and zero closings. Sellers of aging listings are competing against a resale market that's outperforming them.
  • Scrutinize zoning before you fall in love with acreage or price. A great $/acre number on a commercially-zoned or ambiguously-zoned parcel may not translate into a straightforward residential build.
  • Run the full build-vs-buy math before you commit, not just the land price. In towns like Waterbury, a finished home may currently be the more efficient path to the same outcome.
  • In fast-moving towns like Warren, don't expect the same leverage — that market is closing near full price in under a month, so come prepared to move decisively.

What This Means If You're Selling

  • Price to the build economics, not the comp set. Buyers are mentally weighing your land against a finished home, not just against other land. If that math doesn't work in your favor, price is the lever you control.
  • Remove buyer uncertainty before you list. A current survey, confirmed access, and completed perc/septic testing eliminate exactly the kind of ambiguity that's keeping remote and unclear-zoned parcels sitting the longest in this data.
  • Consider seller financing. Since land loans are harder to secure than conventional mortgages, offering to carry part of the note can meaningfully widen your buyer pool without waiting on rates or bank policy to change.
  • Market to the right buyer. Genuinely buildable residential land should be marketed to owner-builders and local spec builders — not lumped in with commercial-adjacent listings chasing an entirely different buyer.
  • Be realistic about timeline. With comparable land in towns like Waterbury sitting 200–400+ days without converting to a sale, pricing to the "wait it out" comp set is pricing to an outcome the data isn't currently supporting.

Have questions about how your specific property fits into this picture? That's exactly the kind of conversation worth having before you list or make an offer — reach out anytime.

How Can New England Landmark Realty Help With Central Vermont Land?

New England Landmark Realty can help buyers and sellers test zoning, pricing, and build-vs-buy assumptions against current market data. In a market ranging from 29.5 days on market in Warren to zero Waterbury land closings, parcel-level strategy matters.

The right decision starts with the parcel, not the countywide average.

Office: 802-253-4711
Toll-Free: 866-324-2427
Cell: 802-233-4107
Website: nelandmark.com

Sources

July 9, 2026

Dogs Are Smarter Than Humans

 

My dog rarely barks at me, which gives his criticism enormous weight.

He is not one of those dogs who narrates every passing leaf. He does not scream at delivery trucks, passing cyclists, or the wind, though I suspect he has notes. He saves his voice for moments of true managerial failure: a late dinner, an insufficiently brisk walk, or the time I tried to put his harness on upside down and briefly became, in his eyes, a government experiment.

Most days, he runs the house like a German Olympic coach. Meals occur on schedule. Walks begin with urgency. I am expected to maintain posture, focus, and a basic understanding of leash geometry. If I pause to check my phone, he looks back with the cold disappointment of a man who has trained luge champions.

There are standards, most of them unwritten, all of them enforceable.

And yet this same creature, this compact household dictator with excellent hearing, is afraid of the coat rack by the front door.

Not wary. Not cautious. Afraid.

The coat rack has never moved, spoken, voted, or expressed an opinion about him. It stands there holding jackets, which, in a better society, would be enough. But to my dog, it is an antlered doorman from the underworld. A six-foot omen in scarves.

The ritual is elaborate. I reach for the leash. He becomes alert, heroic, ready to serve. Then I drift, accidentally or maliciously, toward the front door. He freezes. His ears retract. His eyes widen with the expression of someone who has just seen the coat rack again, despite several formal complaints.

Then comes the bark.

One bark.

Not frantic. Not loud. Administrative.

It means: You know the route.

So we reverse course. We pass through the kitchen, past the laundry room, into the garage, where he waits with the grave patience of an animal who has saved us both from certain retail furniture.

This is how I realized dogs are smarter than humans.

Not because they are always rational. Clearly, they are not. But because they do not confuse endurance with virtue.

A dog fears a coat rack. We leave through the garage.

That is not cowardice. That is logistics.

In summer, he will beg for a walk like a prisoner of conscience. He will pace. He will stare. He will sigh as if I have personally delayed parole.

Then we step outside.

He feels the heat.

He turns around.

Walk canceled.

No debate. No "getting our steps in." No heroic little podcast about resilience. He has reviewed July and found it unacceptable.

Meanwhile, I am standing there in shorts and optimism, holding a plastic bag like the junior member of a doomed expedition.

His goals are clear: eat, patrol, rest, be near the person, correct the person, avoid the coat rack.

I have no such discipline.

I own a calendar, which is essentially a list of future resentments. My dog owns a bed in three rooms and somehow uses all of them strategically. I answer emails from people who begin with "circling back." My dog circles twice, lies down, and has accomplished more.

The older I get, the more I suspect intelligence is not the ability to solve complicated problems. It is the ability to refuse unnecessary ones.

Dogs have boundaries. They understand rest. They greet joy without suspicion. Sometimes the correct response to danger is a single bark and a firm detour through the garage.

My dog will never run for office, despite having the temperament for it. He already controls the household, maintains a strict fitness program, and has reduced foreign policy to squirrels.

But he would never seek power.

He has seen what leadership does to a person.

Also, the podium might look like a coat rack.

More from New England Landmark Realty

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Contact New England Landmark Realty

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July 6, 2026

Vermont's Land Use Mess Just Got Messier. Here's Why You Should Care.

 

What You Need to Know

  • Act 181, passed in 2024 to reform Vermont's land use law, was partially repealed in May 2026 after rural landowner protests.
  • Congress passed a landmark housing bill with federal grants to help states implement housing reforms. Trump canceled the signing for political leverage.
  • Vermont now has fewer environmental protections but still-slow housing permitting—and no federal support to accelerate reform.

Vermont is caught in a trap of its own making.

On one side: a housing shortage so acute that Vermont needs 12,000+ more affordable homes, and rents keep climbing because supply is tight. Young people are leaving. Teachers can't afford to stay. Nurses are working two jobs just to pay rent.

On the other side: rural landowners who fought back against Act 181, saying state environmental rules threatened their property rights and land values. Hundreds protested at the Statehouse in March 2026. They won. The controversial parts of Act 181 were partially repealed in May.

So now Vermont has repealed environmental protections without actually speeding up housing development. The core Act 250 permitting process is still slow. Still complex. Still making projects financially unworkable before construction begins.

It's a mess. And it just got worse.

Because Congress passed a housing bill—the first major one in decades—that included federal grants specifically designed to help states implement housing reforms like the ones Vermont is struggling with. Trump killed the bill Tuesday. For political leverage on something completely unrelated.

Now Vermont has no federal support, no federal funding, no federal technical assistance.

Here's what actually happened.

Act 250, Vermont's 1970 land use law, is the core bottleneck. Any housing project over 25 units needs Act 250 approval. The review process takes 12-18 months. Add appeals, and developers are looking at 2-3 years. During that time, construction costs rise significantly a 30% increase—making projects that were viable on Day 1 financially impossible by the time approval arrives.

Act 181, passed in 2024 over Governor Scott's veto, tried to fix this with a tiered system:

Tier 1 (already-developed areas): Loosen Act 250 reviews, speed up housing approvals

Tier 2 (rural areas): Add new requirements (like a road rule for roads over 800 feet) to protect forest fragmentation

Tier 3 (sensitive ecosystems): Boost protections for headwater streams and habitat connectors

The theory: build more housing where it's already urban, protect the farmland and forests that define Vermont.

Rural landowners hated the environmental parts. They argued environmental rules would devalue their land and prevent future development in smaller towns. Beginning in March 2026, they organized protests. In May 2026, the Vermont Legislature—both chambers—voted to partially repeal Act 181, removing Tier 2 (the road rule) and Tier 3 (environmental protections). The Senate vote was 28-2.

So Vermont now has:

The housing-friendly parts of Act 181 (Tier 1) in place. The environmental protections stripped away (Tier 2 & 3 gone). But the core Act 250 permitting process? Still slow. Still complex.

Vermont repealed environmental rules without actually accelerating housing approval. It's the worst possible outcome: fewer environmental protections, but no faster development.

What the federal bill actually offered.

The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which Congress passed with veto-proof majorities, included $200 million in annual competitive grants for local governments that demonstrate measurable increases in housing supply through "streamlined permitting, density bonuses, and zoning changes."

Vermont towns could have competed for that money and used it to hire permitting staff, modernize their Act 250 review processes, and implement the technical changes Act 181 required.

The bill also included grants for planning assistance—the unglamorous, expensive work of actually implementing reforms.

Most Vermont towns lack the budget to do this independently. Federal grants would have bridged that gap.

Why this matters right now.

Trump was scheduled to sign the housing bill. Forty-eight hours before the signing ceremony, he canceled it. According to reporting, Trump demanded Congress pass his SAVE Act (citizenship verification) first, using the housing bill as leverage.

Congress has veto-proof majorities. They could override him. Instead, the bill sits unsigned. Trump has not indicated when or whether he will sign it.

Meanwhile, Vermont's Act 181 partial repeal just became law in May 2026.

Vermont now has: a partially reformed (and now partially repealed) state land use system. No federal funding to implement the reforms that remain. No federal technical support. No federal grants to help towns accelerate their permitting processes.

The bill that could have provided all three is in political limbo.

What this actually costs.

Here's the likely scenario: A developer in Washington County looks at the Act 250 timeline. Looks at construction cost inflation during a 2-3 year approval process. Does the math. The project becomes unviable.

She moves to a state with faster permitting.

That housing unit doesn't get built. Another one after that. The shortage widens.

Rents climb because supply is tight. Young families get priced out. Teachers working in Vermont schools can't afford to live in Vermont communities. Nurses working at Central Vermont Medical Center live an hour away and commute.

This is mechanical, not emotional. Just the math of supply and demand.

And it was preventable. Vermont was ready to implement housing reforms. Needed federal funding to do it properly. Congress was about to provide it.

Now it's not.

Why this is actually interesting.

This isn't a simple left-right problem. It's Vermont vs. Itself.

Governor Scott (Republican) vetoed Act 181 in 2024, calling it a "conservation bill" that wouldn't fix housing. Democrats overrode him. Rural Republicans then organized massive protests against the environmental protections. Democrats, facing rural voter anger, repealed those protections.

Now Scott is saying the Legislature isn't taking housing seriously.

The Legislature tried to balance growth and conservation. Faced political pressure. Repealed the environmental parts while keeping the housing-friendly parts. Except the housing parts don't work without actual permitting reform and resources to implement it.

Federal grants would have given them that runway. Would have let them say to rural voters: "We're protecting forests AND speeding housing, and we have federal funding to do it right."

Instead, Vermont got: fewer environmental protections, but still-slow housing permitting.

It's the outcome nobody wanted.

The thing Vermonters need to understand.

This isn't about politics. It's about capacity.

Vermont was trying to solve a genuinely hard problem (growth vs. conservation). Had a plan (Act 181). Faced political pressure and modified it. Still needed resources to implement what remained.

Federal government was about to provide those resources.

Now it's not.

So Vermont is left trying to solve a complex, expensive problem—permitting reform, housing development, conservation—with no external support, no federal funding, and no federal technical assistance.

It's harder now. More expensive. Slower.

Your neighbor pays the price.

Sources

  1. Vermont Housing Shortage: National Low-Income Housing Coalition, "2026 Vermont Housing Profile" (2026)
  2. Act 181 Passed Over Governor's Veto: Vermont Public, "Phil Scott Vetoes Bill That Would Make Sweeping Changes to Act 250" (June 13, 2024)
  3. Act 181 Structure (Tier System): Vermont Department of Housing and Community Development, "Act 181: Modernizing Land Use Review"
  4. March 2026 Act 181 Protests: VTDigger, "Hundreds Protest Act 181 on Statehouse Steps" (March 24, 2026)
  5. May 2026 Partial Repeal (S.325): VTDigger, "Partial Repeal of Vermont's Land-Use Law Act 181 Heads to Gov. Phil Scott's Desk" (May 27, 2026); Vermont Senate vote 28-2
  6. Act 250 Permitting Timelines: VTDigger, "Vermont Loosened Act 250 Rules for Housing. Here's Where Developers Are Responding." (December 11, 2024)
  7. Construction Cost Inflation During Permitting: VTDigger op-ed by Kathy Beyer, "The Permit Appeal Process Has Delayed the Start of Construction by at Least Two Years" (2026)
  8. 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Details: Bipartisan Policy Center, "What's in the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act?"
  9. Federal Housing Bill Passage: PBS NewsHour, "What's in the Housing Affordability Bill That Trump Refused to Sign" (2026)
  10. Trump Cancels Housing Bill Signing: BBC News, "Trump Cancels Signing of Landmark Bill Aimed at Lowering Housing Costs" (2026); Wall Street Journal, "Trump's Meeting With Senators Turns Fiery Over Iran War" (2026); ABC News coverage (2026)
  11. Congress Passes Housing Bill With Veto-Proof Majorities: PBS, BBC, ABC News, Axios reporting (June 2026)

More on Vermont Housing

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July 3, 2026

Opening Day and the Sacred New England Lie

Harris Vexley's Full Article (Unedited)

 

Every baseball season begins with the same sacred New England lie: this year will be different.

Quick Answer

Red Sox fans experience cyclical hope because Opening Day arrives before evidence. The season hasn't yet hardened into standings, the bullpen hasn't yet failed, and four generations of inherited optimism remain intact. By June, hope becomes educational.

We say it in March, when the snow is still retreating in dirty, humiliated piles and the Red Sox have not yet had the opportunity to harm us in a statistically meaningful way. The grass is green. The caps are clean. The broadcasters sound rested. Even the bullpen appears, from a distance, to be a professional organization.

This is the dangerous part.

Hope, in baseball, is not a feeling. It is a recurring medical condition.

I know this because I am from Vermont, where baseball is not so much watched as inherited. My great-grandfather was a Red Sox fan. My grandfather was a Red Sox fan. My father was a Red Sox fan. By the time I arrived, the family had already lost several decades, most of its emotional elasticity, and any reasonable expectation of late-inning competence.

Still, every Opening Day, we believed.

My great-grandfather believed by the radio, which hissed and crackled like it was trying to warn him. My grandfather believed through the newspaper box scores, circling batting averages with the tenderness of a man annotating scripture. My father believed from a recliner, issuing small tactical recommendations to men in Boston who could not hear him and, frankly, had their own problems.

I believe through my phone, which is worse.

A push notification has no bedside manner. It simply appears and says, "Three-run homer allowed," as if notifying me that the barn has burned down but the chickens remain optimistic.

Opening Day Harris is always a disgraceful romantic.

Opening Day Harris says things like, "I like the shape of this team."

June Harris replies, "This team has the shape of a folding chair."

Opening Day Harris says, "The rotation looks promising."

June Harris says, "The rotation appears to be a witness protection program for earned runs."

Opening Day Harris says, "The young players just need time."

June Harris says, "I would prefer they stop learning in public."

As of this week, the Red Sox are 27–39 and last in the American League East, which is less a record than a weather report: scattered concern, heavy bullpen, chance of muttering after dinner.

And yet I am not angry.

Anger is too simple. Red Sox fandom, properly practiced, requires a more artisanal suffering. A slow-roasted disappointment. The kind that pairs well with black coffee, porch silence, and saying, "Long season," in the tone of a man describing a minor roof leak that has become sentient.

Each generation of Vexley men had its own phrase for baseball despair.

My great-grandfather said, "Long season."

My grandfather said, "Plenty of games left."

My father said, "They'll get hot."

I say, "I have muted the app for my health."

This is progress, technically.

Baseball is the only sport patient enough to ruin you politely. Football kicks in the door. Basketball runs you breathless. Hockey crashes through the boards with dental consequences. But baseball sits beside you for three hours and gradually convinces you that a walk, a bloop single, and a throwing error constitute a philosophical event.

This is why we love it.

Also, because we are not well.

The great trick of Opening Day is that it arrives before evidence. Before the standings harden. Before the bullpen begins entering from right field with the energy of substitute teachers during a fire drill. Before someone says, "He's day-to-day," and you realize, with horror, that so are you.

On Opening Day, everyone is undefeated.

By June, some of us have become educational institutions.

Still, I will watch.

I will sit with my coffee, or my sandwich, or my inherited anxiety, and I will listen for the old rhythms. The crack of the bat. The murmur of the crowd. The announcer explaining that the tying run is on deck, which is baseball's way of offering emotional credit at a dangerous interest rate.

I will remember my father, who became his father, who became his father, all of them staring toward Boston with the grim patience of men waiting for a cow to apologize.

And next spring, I will believe again.

Not because I am foolish.

Because baseball is the only institution in America that can break your heart slowly enough to call it tradition.

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July 2, 2026

Iran Conflict, Inflation Spike, and Your Mortgage Rate Window in Central Vermont

 

This morning, the inflation data landed: May's CPI came in at 4.2%—the highest level since April 2023. The bond market sold off. Simultaneously, oil prices spiked as peace talks between Iran and the U.S. showed fresh signs of failure. WTI crude is trading around $89 per barrel, elevated and volatile.

Here's the question nobody wants to ask: what if this doesn't end in the next four months?

If You Only Remember 3 Things

  • Today's 4.2% inflation spike (highest since April 2023) plus rising oil prices signal sticky inflation ahead—the Fed won't be cutting rates.
  • If the Iran conflict extends through November, mortgage rates could push toward 7% or beyond, thinning the move-up buyer pool and compressing inventory further.
  • Central Vermont's market is holding now, but the window to sell before rates spike is closing—June and July are your best months.

Quick Facts

  • May 2026 CPI: 4.2% (released June 10); WTI crude oil: ~$89/barrel; mortgage rates: 6.66%-6.75%
  • Upside rate risk if conflict continues: +0.375% to +0.435%, pushing rates toward 7.1%-7.2%
  • Fed's next meeting: June 16-17 (6 days away); expect "hold steady" guidance, not rate cuts

The Longer This Lasts, The Worse It Gets for Sellers

If the conflict stretches through summer and into fall—through the midterms in November—energy prices stay elevated. Inflation stays sticky. Today's 4.2% print is proof that inflation isn't cooling as the Fed hoped. And mortgage rates, currently hovering around 6.66%-6.75%, face genuine upside risk of another 0.375% to 0.435%.

That's not catastrophe. It's math. And it's happening in real time.

What today's inflation data actually signals

The Fed has been holding rates steady, betting that inflation would cool on its own. Today's number proves that strategy isn't working. Inflation spiked from 3.8% in April to 4.2% in May. That's not noise. That's a reversal.

The culprit? Energy prices. Oil has been volatile all year because of the Iran conflict. Every time peace talks break down—like they're doing right now—oil spikes. Every oil spike feeds back into inflation. And every inflation spike means the Fed has to stay hawkish.

The Fed's next meeting is June 16-17, just six days away. When they see today's 4.2% print combined with crude oil at $89, expect them to signal: "We're staying put. Rates aren't coming down anytime soon."

What that means for your timing

Central Vermont's market is holding. Inventory is tight. Prices are stable. Move-up buyers with equity are still moving, albeit more carefully than they were six months ago.

But here's what changes if rates tick another 0.375%:

A buyer pre-approved at $650,000 at 6.75% doesn't qualify at $650,000 at 7.125%. The math shifts. Their buying power drops. They either reduce their offer by $30,000-$40,000, or they step out of the market entirely.

Multiply that across dozens of buyers in the move-up segment, and suddenly the inventory that's tight becomes constrained. The market that's been holding starts to slow.

The base case vs. the risk case

Logan Mohtashami's 2026 forecast was straightforward: mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75%, with the upper end (6.375%-6.75%) most likely if labor data stayed firm and inflation remained sticky.

We're in the upper range. That's the base case. It's workable.

But today's inflation print plus ongoing Iran tensions point toward the risk case: rates could push toward 7% or slightly beyond. That's the upside risk. And it just got more real.

What an election result won't change

Polling suggests Democrats have a reasonable chance of flipping the House in November. If that happens—or if they gain seats in the Senate—markets might briefly reprice. But here's what actually matters for rates: it won't change the trajectory.

Why? Because the Iran conflict doesn't care about U.S. elections. It runs through November regardless. Energy prices stay elevated. Inflation stays sticky. Today's 4.2% print shows us that inflation isn't self-correcting—it's still climbing.

The Fed's hawkish stance—which is already baked in—doesn't shift because of a change in Congressional leadership.

In a divided government scenario (most likely: Democratic House, Republican Senate), you don't get major fiscal changes that would loosen monetary policy. You get gridlock, which means the Fed stays the course. Rates stay higher for longer.

If somehow Democrats sweep both chambers, you might get fiscal stimulus, which could actually keep inflation higher, not lower. More stimulus + sticky inflation = Fed stays even more hawkish.

So betting on an election outcome to move the rate needle is a mistake. The structural headwinds—today's inflation spike, elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty—are bigger than any political outcome in November.

Why this matters for Vermont sellers right now

You have clarity on your market today. You know what rates are. You know what buyers are willing to pay. You know the seasonal momentum is still in your favor—June and July are still strong months.

But if rates climb another quarter point in August—and today's inflation print makes that more likely—that clarity evaporates. The buyer who was comfortable at $700,000 in July might not be comfortable at $700,000 in September. The move-up seller who was planning a September listing suddenly realizes they should have listed in June.

The timeline

The Fed's next meeting is June 16-17. They'll see today's 4.2% inflation print and elevated oil prices. Expect cautious language about "data dependency" and "remaining vigilant." That caution translates to: rates probably don't come down soon. They might even go up.

Summer goes into fall. The midterms are in November. If the conflict is still unresolved by then—and peace talks are already faltering—that's 10+ months of elevated energy prices and sticky inflation. That's a long time for buyers to feel uncertain about rates.

Use your window now. The runway between "rates are stable at current levels" and "rates have climbed another 0.375%" just got shorter.

What to do

For sellers: List decisively. Price realistically. Close fast. Today's inflation data is a signal that the Fed won't be cutting rates. The market will hold through summer, but don't count on fall.

For move-up sellers: Solve your buyer problem before you create your seller problem. Get clear on where you're going before you list where you are. Today's rate environment is the best you're going to see for a while.

For buyers: Expand your options. Use every tool. Know your actual numbers. Move when conditions are clear. Waiting for rates to fall isn't a strategy anymore. Today's inflation print proves that.

Vermont's market is resilient. But resilience doesn't mean complacency. It means moving strategically inside the conditions you have, not waiting for conditions to improve—whether that's hoping rates will fall or betting on an election outcome that won't change the fundamental math.

The Iran conflict is still escalating. Oil prices are still elevated. Inflation just spiked. And the Fed's next move is almost certainly "hold steady," not "cut rates."

Act accordingly.

Where to Go Next

Don't Wait for the Market to Change

Today's inflation spike and rising oil prices signal that rates aren't coming down anytime soon. If you're thinking about selling, the window to move before rates climb further is closing. Central Vermont's market is holding now, but the Fed's June 16-17 meeting could shift the outlook. Get clear on your strategy. Know your numbers. Move decisively.

Contact New England Landmark Realty

Office: (802) 253-4711 | Toll-Free: (866) 324-2427

Tony Walton (Founding Partner): (802) 233-4107

New England Landmark Realty

© 2026 New England Landmark Realty. Serving Central Vermont real estate with market clarity and strategic guidance since 2007.

July 1, 2026

The Thaw Nobody's Selling Tickets To

Tony Walton's Full Article (Unedited)

 

Vermont real estate exhales. Here's what the numbers, the Statehouse, and 24,000 missing homes are trying to tell us.

Quick Answer

Vermont real estate in 2026 is less frantic but not cheaper: inventory is up 11.7%, homes sit longer, and prices still rise because the state remains structurally short on housing.

For four years, Vermont real estate behaved like a Soho House membership line. Irrational. Performative. Rigged against everyone who showed up.

Inventory was a rumor. Bidding wars were a personality trait. Buyers walked into open houses the way people walk into the DMV — braced for indignity.

That market is dead. Long live the market.

The Numbers Are Finally Telling the Truth

Statewide inventory is up 11.7% year-over-year. Median days on market: roughly 91. Sellers are taking home 96.3 cents on the dollar — not 105, not 110. Above-list sales have collapsed from nearly 20% to 13.7%.

And yet the statewide median price still climbed to about $412,200. Waterbury's average home value sits at $550,330, up 1.8% year-over-year. Chittenden County crossed $500K in most segments and never looked back.

"This is the first spring market since 2019 that actually feels like a negotiation between adults."

Here's the paradox nobody at the cocktail party can explain: How do prices keep rising while inventory rises?

Because Vermont isn't a real estate market. It's a supply deficit wearing a real estate market's clothes.

We still have only about 2.9 months of supply. A balanced market needs four to six. We've moved from frozen to functioning. We have not moved to fair.

Key Takeaways

Two-Sentence Summary

This page is for buyers, sellers, and developers who need a Vermont market read grounded in current numbers, not pandemic-era memory. Tony Walton's view is simple: negotiating room is back, prices are still supported, and the shortage underneath the market is still doing the heavy lifting.

If You Only Remember 3 Things

  • Vermont inventory is up 11.7%, but 2.9 months of supply is still a shortage, not balance.
  • Act 181 created a real downtown and village-center development window, but January 2027 is now a deadline, not a theory.
  • Equity-rich sellers and patient equity buyers make a statewide crash unlikely.

Quick Facts

  • Inventory: +11.7% year-over-year statewide.
  • Median price: about $412,200 statewide.
  • Transfer tax on a $500,000 second home: about $18,100.

Data from sources listed below.

The Equity Fortress

Eighty-seven percent of mortgaged Vermont homeowners are equity-rich. Among the highest rates in America.

Translation: there are no panic sellers. The 2008 playbook — distressed listings, foreclosure cascades, forced price discovery — does not apply here. There is no kindling.

Vermont owners can wait out a bad rate cycle the way Warren Buffett waits out a bad quarter. Patiently. Sipping something local.

That is why the "crash is coming" YouTubers keep getting Vermont wrong. They are pricing a market that doesn't exist on a topography they've never walked.

The Statehouse Just Walked Back the Walk-Back

This is the story most brokers aren't tracking. They should be.

June 2024: Lawmakers override Governor Scott's veto and pass H.687 — known as Act 181 — the largest Act 250 reform in fifty years. It exempts housing in Vermont's 24 designated downtowns from Act 250 review through January 2027. It exempts projects of up to 50 units around dozens of designated village centers.

It also introduces a two-tier Property Transfer Tax. The general rate stays at 1.25%. But second homes and non-principal residences get hit at 3.4%.

The Math on a $500,000 Home

Vermont resident, principal residence ~$5,410
Nonresident, second-home buyer ~$18,100

Call it what it is — the "Welcome to Vermont" tax. The Legislature finally figured out that the Audi from Greenwich could pay a little more on the way in.

Then, on May 21, 2026, the Joint Committee of Conference on S.325 — now Act 152 — voted to repeal Act 181's Tier 3 jurisdiction and the controversial "Road Rule." The two pieces environmentalists won and developers hated.

But — and read this carefully — the same committee stripped out the Senate-passed pro-housing reforms that would have:

  • Extended the interim Act 250 housing exemptions to 2030
  • Removed arbitrary parcel-size constraints
  • Expanded interim exemptions to more rural communities
  • Expanded the Priority Housing Project for mixed-income and affordable development
"In the midst of a deep housing affordability crisis, this joint committee cast aside a series of thoughtful, reasonable pro-housing changes." — Alex Farrell, Commissioner, Vermont Department of Housing and Community Development

The takeaway for anyone holding a developable parcel near a designated downtown — Waterbury, Stowe Village, Montpelier, Burlington: the calendar is now the asset. The regulatory window is real. It has a January 2027 expiration sticker. The Legislature just signaled, clearly, that the door narrows.

The 24,000-Unit Hole

Vermont is short roughly 24,000 housing units. Some studies put the number closer to 30,000 or 40,000.

Since 2001, Vermont median home prices have risen 148%. Median household income has risen 72%.

That spread is not a market quirk. It's a generational sorting machine. It picks winners from a finite pool of equity migrants out of Boston, New York, and the Bay Area. It locks out almost everyone whose paycheck originates inside the state.

"Vermont isn't unaffordable because of greed. It's unaffordable because we won't build."

The press releases keep dancing around it. The math doesn't.

The Buyer Has Quietly Changed

The 2021 Vermont buyer was a panicked Brooklynite with a Zoom job and a Subaru.

The 2026 buyer is a more deliberate animal. Remote workers who already moved, stayed, and are now trading up. Retirees liquidating coastal equity. Second-home buyers — now paying the 3.4% tax and getting choosier about what's worth it. Patient equity migrants who waited out the bidding wars and are finally pulling triggers.

These buyers are less rate-sensitive than first-timers. They're not financing the whole purchase. They're financing the tail.

That is why 6%-plus rates haven't crushed Vermont the way the textbooks say they should. The textbooks assume buyers are stretched. Ours, in large part, aren't.

The Bifurcation Nobody Talks About at Closings

The market is splitting into two markets. The gap is widening every quarter.

WINNING
  • Move-in ready homes in walkable villages
  • Sub-$500K entry-level homes
  • Broadband, new septic, updated mechanicals
  • Chittenden County core
  • Stowe / Waterbury village corridor
LOSING
  • Rural fixers with deferred maintenance
  • Overpriced second-home inventory
  • No broadband, failing septic, oil heat
  • Far-flung properties without amenities
  • Aspirationally priced anything

Condition and presentation now matter more than they did in 2022. A lot more.

The Honest Read

Buyers: this is the best negotiating window since 2019. It is also seasonal, and probably temporary. Spring competition will compress it. Move while the room exists.

Sellers: 2021 isn't coming back. Price to the comp, stage to the buyer, and stop arguing with the market. Aspirational pricing in 2026 just buys you 91 days of carrying costs and a price cut anyway.

Developers: you have until January 2027 to break ground inside a designated downtown without an Act 250 permit. After that, the Legislature has signaled, clearly, that the door narrows. Mud season ends. So does this window.

Vermonters: pay attention to who is getting elected this November. The next Legislature decides whether we solve our housing problem or just keep writing essays about it. (Yes, I see the irony.)

Vermont's market isn't correcting. It's exhaling. The pandemic frenzy is over. The structural shortage is not.

Plan from the math

Buyers, sellers, and developers in Central Vermont have more room than they did a year ago, but the underlying shortage still defines the market. Run your numbers against this market — not last year's.

Where to Go Next

July 1, 2026

Home Repairs That Aren't As Scary As They Look

 

You're about to list your home. You walk through it and suddenly everything looks broken.

The toilet runs. There's a hole in the drywall. A draft whistles through the kitchen window like it's auditioning for a wind instrument.

Your mind spirals. Do I need a contractor? Is this a deal-breaker? Should I just reduce the price?

Stop. Most of what you're seeing isn't a structural problem. It's a perception problem. And perception is fixable without spending money you don't have.

If You Only Remember 3 Things

Most common home repairs—running toilets, slow drains, drywall patches—require basic tools and minimal expertise.

Small cosmetic fixes and tightened hardware can significantly improve your home's showing condition without contractor costs.

Addressing these before listing removes buyer red flags and builds confidence in your home's care.

Quick Facts

Pre-listing cosmetic repairs are one of the fastest ROI investments a seller can make.

Buyers often overestimate repair scope; visible neglect reads as deeper issues, even if they're surface-level.

Central Vermont homes built in older eras (1970s–2000s) are particularly susceptible to loose hardware and draft issues—both quick fixes.

The Truth About Home Repairs

Familiarity kills fear. Once you understand what's actually broken—and what just looks broken—you can either fix it yourself or decide it's not worth fixing at all. Either way, you stop bleeding confidence.

Fixing a running toilet

A running toilet is the home repair equivalent of a hypochondriac Googling symptoms. It feels serious. It's not.

Ninety percent of running toilets come down to one worn part inside the tank. The flapper. It's a rubber disc the size of a hockey puck. When it wears out, water leaks into the bowl, the tank refills constantly, and you hear that hissing sound that makes you think your plumbing is staging a mutiny.

Adjusting toilet tank components—a simple fifteen-minute repair

You can replace it in fifteen minutes with a $15 kit from any hardware store. No special skills. No plumber required. It's literally the easiest repair in this article.

Unclogging a slow drain

Slow drains are anxiety machines. Your brain immediately jumps to tree roots, broken pipes, and five-figure excavation bills.

Reality: it's usually hair and soap buildup three inches below the surface. You can clear it with a plunger, a cheap plastic snake, or even boiling water. If none of that works, then you call someone. But eighty percent of the time, you won't need to.

Patching small holes in drywall

Small holes announce neglect. A buyer sees them and thinks, "What else has this person not maintained?" Fair or not, it matters.

The good news: drywall repair is genuinely easy. Spackle, sandpaper, paint. An hour of work. Twenty dollars in materials. You'll feel like you actually accomplished something, which is a bonus.

Smoothing wall patching compound—an hour-long cosmetic fix

Tightening loose hardware

Cabinet handles, door hinges, towel bars—they loosen over time. It happens. It doesn't mean anything is failing.

Grab a screwdriver. Tighten them. Done. This takes twenty minutes for an entire house and makes everything feel more solid and cared-for. It's the easiest confidence builder you've got.

Replacing light fixtures or switches

This one intimidates people because electricity. But here's the reality: if you can follow a simple instruction card and match colored wires, you can do this.

Turn off the breaker. Disconnect the old fixture. Connect the new one. Turn the breaker back on. The fixture works or it doesn't. If it doesn't, you turn the breaker off again and figure out what you missed. No one dies. Your house doesn't catch fire. It's actually remarkably forgiving.

Sealing small gaps or drafts

Drafts make a home feel uncomfortable. Caulk and weatherstripping seal them. Both are fifteen-minute fixes. Both cost less than coffee.

Sealing window with care—a simple weatherization fix

The real thing

Home repairs feel scary because you don't understand them. Once you do, most of them are just... tedious. Not hard. Tedious.

The ones listed here? They're in the "doable" category. You don't need a contractor. You don't need special skills. You just need to stop catastrophizing and start with the simple stuff.

Your home doesn't need to be perfect. It needs to feel maintained. It needs to tell the story that you've cared for it. These repairs tell that story.

Where to Go Next

Selling Your Vermont Home: The Complete Guide

Vermont Home Buyer's Guide

Browse Central Vermont Listings

Ready to Sell?

Pre-listing prep doesn't have to be stressful. Let NELR walk you through the process—from identifying what matters to buyers to staging your home for maximum impact. We've helped Central Vermont sellers for nearly two decades. We know what works.

Contact New England Landmark Realty

Office: (802) 253-4711 | Toll-Free: (866) 324-2427

Tony Walton: (802) 233-4107

New England Landmark Realty

© 2026 New England Landmark Realty. Central Vermont real estate expertise and straight talk.

Posted in Property Insights
June 12, 2026

Vermont Housing Market 2026: Why Buyers & Sellers Are Stuck

 

Published June 8, 2026

↓ Jump to Key Takeaways

The share of first-time buyers in Vermont's housing market has collapsed to levels that should alarm anyone paying attention. While national data shows a 21% share (the lowest on record), the historical norm hovers around 40%. But here's what matters more than the headline: in Central Vermont—Washington, Lamoille, and Chittenden Counties—the problem isn't just statistical. It's visceral. It's the young teacher who can't afford to stay in Waterbury. It's the nurse at Central Vermont Medical Center working two jobs and still underwater on the math. It's the family with roots here, watching the door to ownership close. This isn't a rate-cycle artifact. It's structural. And it explains why your transaction volume feels frozen even when the market doesn't feel broken.

Key Takeaways for Buyers & Sellers

If You Only Remember 3 Things:

  • The qualifying income to buy a median Central Vermont home has roughly doubled since 2020—and that gap isn't closing anytime soon. This isn't about your discipline or savings rate; it's about the fundamental structure of the market shifting against entry-level buyers.
  • Move-up sellers need a buyer's plan before a listing strategy. Don't list without knowing where you're going and whether you can actually qualify there. A listing with no exit plan is a withdrawal waiting to happen.
  • The missing first-time buyer isn't a symptom of a slow market—they're the cause of one. When the entry level freezes, the entire chain above it backs up. Transaction volume collapses faster than prices do, and that's the real problem.

Quick Facts (Central Vermont, 2026):

  • Median home price across Vermont: ~$412,000 (Redfin, 2026); Washington County median: ~$420,000
  • Chittenden County median: ~$499,000; median days on market: 42-91 days depending on county and price point
  • Inventory remains below pre-pandemic levels, creating a constrained supply environment that favors move-up and cash buyers over first-time entrants

Why the Math Stopped Working in Vermont

A repeat buyer in 2026 is walking into a transaction with substantial equity. They hate the rate. But that equity cushion is a financial airbag the rest of the market doesn't have.

A first-time buyer brings what should be enough: income from good work, discipline, savings accumulated through years of delayed gratification. They expect that equation to work. In Vermont, it doesn't anymore.

The qualifying income required to purchase a median-priced home in our region has roughly doubled since 2020. A $450,000 starter home in Waterbury or Montpelier now requires household income that most young Vermonters simply don't have—not because they aren't earning well, but because housing costs have untethered themselves from what local wages can support. Every month a first-time buyer spends saving, the goalposts move. The down payment target keeps climbing. And meanwhile, wages haven't budged.

That asymmetry is what makes this structurally distinct. Everyone feels rate pain. But only homeowners with equity can absorb it. First-time buyers are absorbing nothing but rejection letters.

From Missing Buyer to Missing Market

The housing market operates as a chain reaction. Remove the first link, and the whole system seizes.

When a young couple can't purchase that $450,000 starter home in Stowe or Waterbury, the family living in it can't sell and move up to the $700,000 property in Woodstock they've been eyeing. That seller can't free up the house the next person is waiting on. One missing buyer at the bottom removes three, four, sometimes five transactions from the system. This is why Central Vermont's transaction volume has contracted in ways that mere price data can't explain.

The lock-in effect compounds from above. Two-thirds of mortgaged homeowners carry rates below 4%. Trading up means trading those rates away. Most are choosing not to. So the market is jammed at both ends: Existing owners locked into rates they'll never replicate, and first-time buyers locked out entirely. What you get is a market that has stopped without quite falling.

If your pipeline feels frozen, this is why.

Volume Over Price

Price headlines lie when volume collapses. When deals close, they skew toward move-up buyers and higher-end transactions. The median price data reflects those deals. It does not reflect the larger portion of the market that never materialized—the young families who looked at the numbers, did the math, and decided to rent another year.

Volume is the honest signal. And right now, it's pointing at constraint. Inventory in Central Vermont remains below pre-pandemic levels. This isn't weak demand meeting ample supply. It's weak demand meeting constrained supply, with the weakest demand concentrated exactly where the market needs it most: the entry level.

What This Means for How We Work

None of this resolves quickly. The barriers facing first-time buyers in Vermont—qualifying income, down payment accumulation, compounding home prices—aren't problems that one rate cut fixes. Agents waiting for the market to return to 2021 conditions are going to be waiting for the kind of market that no longer exists.

Three adjustments are worth making now.

First, working with first-time buyers requires a fundamentally different skill set. It's less about finding the right property and more about solving a financial puzzle. Down payment assistance programs, lender relationships that execute 2-1 buydowns well, builder incentives, parental gifts structured correctly—the agents winning in this segment are essentially financial coordinators who happen to have a real estate license. In Vermont, where young professionals care deeply about community but can't afford to stay in it, this skill set is becoming indispensable.

Second, on the listing side, stop taking listings from move-up sellers who haven't solved their own buyer problem first. This isn't advisory hand-holding. This is math. In a constrained inventory market, your move-up seller is simultaneously a buyer competing against other move-up buyers for limited homes in their price range. If you list their $700,000 Woodstock home without first qualifying them as a buyer for the $900,000 property they want—or establishing that no $900,000 property exists that works for them—you've just created a temporary seller with no exit. They'll pull the listing in 60 days when they realize they can't move up. You'll have wasted their time and blown your credibility.

The operational move: Before you sign the listing agreement, have the conversation with a lender. Get a pre-approval letter that accounts for contingency. Know if they're actually buyable at their target price point in today's market. If the numbers don't work, tell them that now. Either they adjust their expectations, or they wait. Either way, you've protected yourself from a dead deal walking.

In Vermont's market right now, a failed listing from a move-up seller isn't just lost commission. It's a signal to the market that inventory isn't real—it's aspirational. Your reputation takes the hit.

Third, the benchmark matters. Measuring current performance against 2021 volume produces a distorted read. The agents doing well right now are running disciplined sphere-of-influence programs. They're treating every lead with urgency because some weeks, that lead is the only one. They're not waiting for the market to come back. They're already working in the market that exists.

The Bottom Line

The missing first-time buyer isn't a symptom of a slow Vermont market. They're the cause of one. Their absence pulls the foundation out from under move-up activity, suppresses transaction volume, and leaves the entire chain above them with nowhere to go.

The barriers keeping them out are structural and not self-correcting. This requires more than time. It requires brokers and agents who understand the architecture of the problem and operate differently because of it.

The ones still waiting for 2021 to return may find they've been waiting for something that can't come back.

For Home Sellers: Why Your Timing Matters More Than Your Price

The housing market has fundamentally shifted, and if you're thinking about selling, you need to understand why the old rules don't apply anymore.

The Market You Think Exists Isn't the Market That's Here

You've probably heard that 'it's a buyer's market now.' Vermont isn't quite there yet—inventory remains tight, and prices are still holding strong. What's actually changed is that buyers have more room to negotiate and fewer competing offers. But here's the catch: the only buyers with room to breathe are move-up buyers with equity and down payment power. First-time buyers haven't gained anything. If anything, tighter lending standards have made their situation worse. So when you hear 'buyer's market,' understand: it's a buyer's market for some, and a locked-out market for others."

First-time buyers, who historically drove transaction volume and created the chain reaction that moved everyone up, have largely disappeared from Vermont's market. They can't afford to get in. And when they can't get in at the bottom, the entire system backs up. Your ability to sell depends on someone else being able to buy the home you want to move into. Right now, that someone else might not exist.

What This Means for Your Sale

If you're a move-up seller—selling your current home to buy a better one—your real problem isn't selling your house. It's buying the next one. Lenders know this. So do savvy buyers. A listing from a seller with no clear plan to move up is a listing with an expiration date. Buyers smell desperation.

Here's what actually works: Before you list, get clear on your next move. Work with a lender. Know what you can actually afford in your target price range. If the numbers don't work, know that now. Either adjust your expectations, or wait. But don't list your current home hoping it all works out. That hope is expensive.

Your Real Advantage Right Now

Inventory is still tight. That's good for you if—and only if—you're ready to move decisively. The sellers winning in this market aren't waiting for perfect timing. They're moving when conditions are clear and their next move is solid. They're not hoping. They're certain.

If you're thinking about selling, the question isn't "Is it a good time?" The question is "Am I ready to actually move, and do I have a clear plan for where I'm going?"

Answer yes to both, and you have an advantage. Answer no, and you're just creating a listing that will eventually withdraw from the market.

For Home Buyers: Why the Game Has Changed, and What You Actually Need to Know

You're looking to buy a home in Vermont. You've saved. You've worked hard. You expect that to be enough. Here's what you need to understand: the math has changed in ways that have nothing to do with your effort or discipline.

The Qualifying Income Required Has Roughly Doubled Since 2020

That's not hyperbole. That's the structural reality of the market you're entering. A $450,000 starter home in Waterbury or Montpelier now requires household income that most young Vermonters don't have—not because you aren't earning enough, but because housing costs have completely untethered from what local wages support.

Every month you spend saving, the prices move up. The down payment target keeps climbing. And meanwhile, your salary hasn't budged. You're not failing at the math. The math has become fundamentally different.

This Is What Agents Won't Tell You

Some of them are waiting for the market to "come back." It won't. Not to what it was. The market that existed in 2021, when first-time buyers could get in at reasonable prices with reasonable down payments and reasonable rates, is gone. The agents still telling you to "just save a bit more and you'll get there" are working from an outdated playbook.

The agents worth listening to are the ones who understand your actual constraints and help you solve for them. That means exploring down payment assistance programs. That means understanding builder incentives. That means working with lenders who execute creative financing well. That means, sometimes, understanding that waiting another year or two might actually be the right move, not because you're not ready, but because the market conditions might improve in ways that matter.

What You Should Actually Do

First, get a real conversation with a lender—not just a pre-qualification, but an actual assessment of what you can afford and what programs exist to help you get there. Many first-time buyers don't know about down payment assistance, 2-1 buydowns, or builder incentives because no one's told them.

Second, work with a real estate agent who understands the financial puzzle, not just the property search. The agent who can help you navigate down payment assistance, understand your actual borrowing capacity, and honestly tell you whether waiting makes sense—that agent is worth their commission.

Third, don't rush into a market that hasn't made room for you yet. The pressure to "just get in" is real. The consequences of getting in wrong are worse.

The Bottom Line for Buyers

You're not failing because you haven't saved enough or earned enough. You're struggling because the fundamental conditions of the market have changed. The path to homeownership in Vermont right now is messier, more complicated, and requires more creativity than it did five years ago. But it's still there. You just need agents and lenders who understand the actual obstacles and know how to navigate around them.

The ones who tell you it's simple, or that saving more is all you need, are selling you a story that stopped being true in 2020.

Where to Go Next

Understanding the market structure is the first step. Taking action is the second.

Vermont Home Buying Guide Vermont Selling Guide

Ready to Navigate Vermont's Market Strategically?

Whether you're a first-time buyer exploring your options, a move-up seller planning your next move, or an agent looking to refine your strategy, New England Landmark Realty has the expertise and market knowledge to help.

Contact Tony Walton directly:

Cell: (802) 233-4107
Office: (802) 253-4711
Toll-Free: (866) 324-2427
Website: www.nelandmark.com

Serving Washington, Lamoille, and Chittenden Counties since 2007.

Sources & References

  1. Redfin, Vermont Housing Market Report (April 2026). Median home price data and market trends. Available at: redfin.com/state/Vermont/housing-market
  2. Zillow, Vermont Home Values & Market Trends (Updated April 30, 2026). County-level median home values and days on market data. Available at: zillow.com/home-values/58/vt/
  3. Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman Realty, Vermont Market Report (2026). Washington County, Chittenden County, and statewide median sale prices and unit sales data. Available at: hickokandboardman.com/vermont-market-report/
  4. New England Landmark Realty, Vermont Buyers Finally Have More Room—But Prices Aren't Falling (Spring 2026). Inventory, days on market, and regional trend analysis. Available at: nelandmark.com/blog/vermont-housing-market-spring-2026/
  5. Federal Reserve (FRED), Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in Vermont (May 2026). Real-time housing supply data. Available at: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUVT
  6. Vermont Housing Finance Agency (VHFA), First-Time Homebuyer Programs (2026). Down payment assistance, competitive interest rates, and closing cost support information. Available at: vhfa.org/homebuyers
  7. National Council of State Housing Agencies (NCSHA), First Generation Homebuyer Program Update (2026). Vermont's renewed $15,000 grant program for eligible first-time buyers. Available at: ncsha.org/hfa-news
  8. Bramlett, Eric, "First-Time Buyers Are the Missing Link in Today's Market," National Real Estate Insights (June 8, 2026). Original structural analysis on entry-level buyer decline and market implications. Referenced for national context and framework.
June 6, 2026

The Past Was Better Before It Came Back

Nostalgia used to be a private feeling. Now it is a product category with distressed denim and a launch calendar.

Nostalgia used to visit quietly. Now it arrives with a marketing plan.

You cannot buy a sweater, watch a television show, or enter a coffee shop bathroom without being gently informed that the past was better, simpler, and available in three colors. The old days are no longer behind us. They are in front of us, on a display table, folded badly but priced with confidence.

The 1990s, in particular, have returned with the energy of someone who left a jacket at your house and now feels entitled to your refrigerator.

Everywhere I look, there they are: the fonts, the sneakers, the music, the jeans that seem less “relaxed fit” than “emotionally unavailable.” Entire brands are now built around the phrase “remember this?” which is dangerous because I do remember this. I was there. I wore the shirts. I survived the snacks. I watched adults explain the internet as if it were a polite fax machine with ambition.

And yet, somehow, the decade has been reissued. Not revived. Reissued. Like a commemorative plate.

This is not nostalgia as memory. This is nostalgia as municipal planning. We are not reminiscing about the past; we are zoning for it. Somewhere, a committee has decided that every person between the ages of thirty-five and fifty-two must be handed a flannel shirt and made to feel something near a food court.

According to a study I commissioned of myself while standing in a store that smelled faintly of denim and moral uncertainty, 87 percent of all current products are now designed to trigger the sentence, “I think I had one of these.” The remaining 13 percent are phone chargers, which will become nostalgic by Thursday.

I understand the appeal. The present is a bit much. Every morning the world places a clipboard in front of us and asks for additional documentation. The past, by contrast, seems calm. It has fewer passwords. It does not ask you to verify that you are not a robot by identifying crosswalks, which, frankly, has become a philosophical trap.

The past also benefits from being over. This gives it a tremendous advantage. Nothing improves an era like no longer having to live in it.

We remember the mixtapes, not the fact that making one required the patience of a medieval monk and the timing of an air traffic controller. We remember the malls, not the fluorescent lighting that made everyone look lightly interrogated. We remember being unreachable, forgetting that this also meant standing outside a movie theater at 7:13 wondering whether Dave had died, betrayed us, or simply chosen bowling.

Still, the past has returned, and it has demands.

It would like us to buy its shoes again. It would like us to watch its television again, except darker and with an eight-episode arc about grief. It would like us to admire its hairstyles, which were brave in the sense that small boats in storms are brave.

The strangest part is that nostalgia has become expensive. In the actual 1990s, a vintage T-shirt was just a shirt your cousin abandoned. Now it costs $84 and comes with a description involving “heritage,” “curated fading,” and “intentional distress,” as if the garment has been through a divorce but handled it tastefully.

I recently saw a pair of sneakers advertised as “throwback classics,” which is marketing language for “you once owned these and destroyed them with lawn mud.” The ad suggested that buying them would reconnect me with my youth. This is false. My youth had knees. My youth could eat nachos after 10 p.m. without convening a medical review board.

If we truly wanted to bring back the past, we would have to bring back all of it. Not just the pleasant artifacts. The slow internet. The mysterious printer errors. The emotional weight of calling a landline and having someone’s father answer. The absolute terror of recording over a family event because you needed the blank tape.

No one wants full-contact nostalgia. We want nostalgia with the difficult parts removed, like a historical reenactment sponsored by a moisturizer.

So I have developed a few rules for responsible remembering.

First, you may revisit a decade, but you may not move back in. This is how problems start. You stop by to admire a poster, and the next thing you know you are defending cargo pants at a dinner party.

Second, nostalgia should be portion-controlled. A song is fine. A playlist is risky. A themed weekend is a cry for help.

Third, before purchasing any object from your youth, ask: “Did I love this, or was I simply nearby when it happened?”

This question would eliminate half of all cultural revivals and several boy bands.

The truth is, the 1990s are not coming back. They cannot. The decade has other commitments, possibly involving a lava lamp and a dial-up tone. What has returned is our longing for a time when our problems seemed smaller because we were smaller, and because nobody had yet invented the phrase “personal brand.”

That is what nostalgia really sells: not the past, but the illusion that we once knew how to be a person.

Maybe we did. Maybe we didn’t. I suspect we were just as confused then, only with more corduroy.

Still, I understand why we keep looking back. The past is tidy from a distance. It waves from across the street, wearing a jacket we miss, pretending it has not forgotten the hard parts.

I wave back sometimes.

Then I return to the present, where my phone is demanding fourteen updates, my shoes are older than several coworkers, and the past is on my porch again, holding a mixtape and asking if my Wi-Fi has a guest password.

More from Harris Vexley

For more gently overmanaged observations on modern life, visit the New England Landmark Realty blog.